Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 68.2%
Prévisionnistes
24
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète3 févr. 24, 19:29 UTC1 mars 00, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will we discover alien life before we get a cure for cancer?
Manifold MarketsWhat will come first Superconductor or Cure for cancer? (Yes Conductor, No Cancer)
Manifold MarketsWe will have a cure for cancer by the end of the century
Manifold MarketsWill we get a cure for cancer before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?
KalshiNew pandemic before 2028?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves as YES if a human ventures onto the surface of Mars before we get a cure for cancer.
- In the context of this question the threshold for "we get a cure for cancer" is defined as: 95% of individuals diagnosed with cancer are alive and cancer-free (complete remission) 18 months after initial diagnosis, in a least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy.
- Numeric markets:
- @/RemNi/what-year-do-we-get-a-cure-for-canc
- Human venture on Mars questions:
- @/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-b78c73592440