Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 70.8%
Prévisionnistes
92
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète5 juil. 23, 21:11 UTC31 déc. 35, 12:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a Canadian set foot on the moon by 2035?
Manifold MarketsIf Bee switches from Vim to VScode, will she kick herself for not having done so sooner?
Manifold MarketsOnce it becomes possible for the general populace to upload themselves, will at least 50% of them have done so within 2 years?
Manifold MarketsWill a human will set foot on Mars by the end of 2047?
Manifold MarketsWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiRègles
Inspired by https://xkcd.com/893/.
- Resolves YES when a human sets foot on the moon or NO when there are no longer any living humans who have set foot on the moon, whichever happens first.
- Closing date will be extended as needed.