Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near Sabine Shoal before 2027? ?

Manifold Markets cote Yes à 55.4% au 18 octobre 2026.

Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near Sabine Shoal before 2027?

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Prévision communautaire actuelle

Oui 55.4%

Prévisionnistes

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 8 heures

Obsolète

27 août 24, 03:27 UTC1 janv. 27, 15:59 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Règles

Sabina Shoal is currently home to one Philippines Coast Guard vessel and many Chinese vessels (Coast Guard and Maritime Militia).

The shoal is claimed by both states.
Recently there have been several clashes between China and the Philippines over the feature.
It is speculated that the PRC has decided to block the Philippines from reinforcing the solitary vessel.
The US is a treaty ally of the Philippines.
'killed' requires an physical act, specifically from one of the other countries mentioned in the question.