Will a Filipino, Chinese or US national be killed on or near the Second Thomas Shoal before 2027?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffChine2moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 51.2%
Prévisionnistes
4
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète24 oct. 23, 05:30 UTC1 janv. 27, 15:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
The Second Thomas Shoal is currently occupied by the Philippines but is claimed by multiple other states including China.
- Recently there have been several clashes between China and the Phillipines over the atoll.
- The US is a treaty ally of the Philippines.
- 'killed' requires an physical act, specifically from one of the other countries mentioned in the question.
- In other words it doesn't count if someone dies for any other reason or they die in a way where it could be reasonably deemed that their own country killed them).
- It would count if another country took some action that clearly led to a death, ie a ship was sunk and survivors were not rescued.
