Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 82.2%
Prévisionnistes
14
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète21 déc. 23, 17:59 UTC1 mars 40, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2055?
Manifold MarketsWill a laser lift a payload to space before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill a laser lift a payload to space before 2045?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiSpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
PolymarketRègles
Resolves as YES if a directed energy system has levitated a payload of at least 10 grams to the height of 100km before January 1st 2040.
- The payload must be lifted from at maximum 50km by the system (the payload can be released by, for example, a balloon), and must reach an altitude of at least 100km.
- The mass of the payload must be at least 10g when crossing the 100km threshold (the mass of the payload may decrease during levitation due to ablation).
- Questions with the same criteria:
- @/RemNiFHfMN/will-a-directed-energy-system-lift-35fc264bbc88
- @/RemNiFHfMN/will-a-directed-energy-system-lift-42027c4cebd3 (this question)
Marchés ouverts
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt88%
- OpenAI-1.7pt10%
- Google2%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 85,3 k €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- Yes59.4%
- No40.6%
- Volume total
- 153,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 39,2 k €
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+3.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETSpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
- October 3197%
- Successful splash down?84%
- September 30-5.3pt83%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 409,9 k €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+1.3pt59.8%
- SpaceX-4.5pt38.1%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-1.0pt84%
- Above 9-27.0pt46%
- Above 10-8.0pt23%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- Next Grok Model (4.7+) released on?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2040? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 82% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2040? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2040? doit être résolu le 1 mars 2040.
- Comment Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2040? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves as YES if a directed energy system has levitated a payload of at least 10 grams to the height of 100km before January 1st 2040.