Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 60.4%
Prévisionnistes
12
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète17 déc. 23, 14:58 UTC1 mars 50, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Resolves as YES if a directed energy system has levitated a payload of at least 10 grams to the height of 100km before January 1st 2050.
- The payload must be lifted from at maximum 50km by the system (the payload can be released by, for example, a balloon), and must reach an altitude of at least 100km.
- The mass of the payload must be at least 10g when crossing the 100km threshold (the mass of the payload may decrease during levitation due to ablation).
- Questions with the same criteria:
- @/RemNiFHfMN/will-a-directed-energy-system-lift-35fc264bbc88
- @/RemNiFHfMN/will-a-directed-energy-system-lift-42027c4cebd3
Marchés ouverts
Space
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt88%
- OpenAI-1.7pt10%
- Google2%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 85,3 k €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- Yes59.4%
- No40.6%
- Volume total
- 153,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 39,2 k €
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+3.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETSpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
- October 3197%
- Successful splash down?84%
- September 30-5.3pt83%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 409,9 k €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+1.3pt59.8%
- SpaceX-4.5pt38.1%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-1.0pt84%
- Above 9-27.0pt46%
- Above 10-8.0pt23%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- Next Grok Model (4.7+) released on?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2050? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 60% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2050? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2050? doit être résolu le 1 mars 2050.
- Comment Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2050? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves as YES if a directed energy system has levitated a payload of at least 10 grams to the height of 100km before January 1st 2050.