Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 86%
Prévisionnistes
1
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 31 minutes
27 oct. 26, 02:01 UTC1 févr. 28, 00:00 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
KalshiWill AI kill >20% of the human population before 2030?
Manifold MarketsSolution or major advances to P=NP with AI help, paper available by mid 2037
Manifold MarketsAll Millennium Prize Problems solved before 2030?
Manifold MarketsAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post A cat-belling problem for FDT is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.