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Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 11 minutes
22 déc. 24, 19:04 UTC30 juin 38, 06:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Solution or major advances to P=NP with AI help, paper available by mid 2028
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Manifold MarketsRègles
Will a paper come out (published or accepted/interesting/believed widely) which is a major advancement in P=NP, and has been created by AI/etc/agents or significantly advanced by them, by end of June 30 2037
- Paper must either be available, or totally confirmed to be valid (e.g. Terence Tao clearly states it's legit, or similar) and on the way to publication.
- It doesn't have to be a paper, some future thing which has a similar effect is okay (effect = changing behavior, beliefs, statements about, or elite evaluations of the truthfullness of related statements; if in the future such things are done by other methods, we do our best to understand that.
- Lack of human intelligibility isn't a blocker as long as we have reason to believe it's true.
- Update 2024-22-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A paper that refutes P=NP would count as a valid resolution
- Any result that significantly changes our view of the P=NP problem would qualify
