Will "10 non-boring ways I've used AI in the last month" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
IAOne-Off1aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 88.5%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète21 avr. 26, 06:06 UTC1 févr. 28, 00:00 UTC
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Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will "Selective Optimism: a critique of AI 2040" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
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KalshiWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketRègles
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post 10 non-boring ways I've used AI in the last month is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 132,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 100,3 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 322,4 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will "10 non-boring ways I've used AI in the last month" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 89% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will "10 non-boring ways I've used AI in the last month" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will "10 non-boring ways I've used AI in the last month" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? doit être résolu le 1 février 2028.
- Comment Will "10 non-boring ways I've used AI in the last month" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.