Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Demographics 29.7%En tête parmi 8 options
Prévisionnistes
50
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète19 sept. 23, 02:44 UTC26 sept. 28, 03:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Ben & Jerry's Chocolate Chip Cookie Dough ice cream still be produced by 2065?
Manifold MarketsWill the FDA approve a cure for Type 1 diabetes before 2033?
KalshiWill my type 1 diabetes be cured before 2030
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?
KalshiWhen will Beam Therapeutics submit a BLA for Risto-cel?
KalshiRègles
See Nutrition Science's Most Preposterous Result, from The Atlantic, May 2023.
- Choi 2005 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/article-abstract/1152788
- Korat 2018 http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:37925665
- Nutr 2019 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6821541/
- Resolves to my best guess five years after creating the market.
- If there are multiple causes, will resolve to my subjective weighting of factors.
Marchés ouverts
Health & Medicine
POLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No97%
- Yes3%
- Volume total
- 15,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 11,6 k €
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No-1.0pt93.1%
- Yes+1.0pt6.9%
- Volume total
- 921 k €
- Volume 24h
- 4,7 k €
POLYMARKETMeasles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- ↑3.5k100%
- ↑500+0.1pt100%
- ↑1k+0.1pt100%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIMedtronic cardiovascular growth in Q2
- Above 8%92%
- Above 9%81%
- Above 11%45%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1,4 k €
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 6000-1.0pt60%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 869,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1,3 k €
KALSHIPandemic in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes5%
- Volume total
- 612,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1,1 k €
- When will Beam Therapeutics submit a BLA for Risto-cel?
- Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?
- Measles cases in U.S. by September 30?
- What will RFK say during RNC Midterm Convention?
- Will the FDA approve retatrutide?
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- When will the FDA approve Intellia Therapeutics' lonvo-z?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
- How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
- Will the FDA approve cytisinicline for smoking cessation?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Why is ice cream consumption correlated with reduced diabetes risk? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Demographics à 30% au 10 septembre 2026.
- Quand Why is ice cream consumption correlated with reduced diabetes risk? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Why is ice cream consumption correlated with reduced diabetes risk? doit être résolu le 26 septembre 2028.
- Comment Why is ice cream consumption correlated with reduced diabetes risk? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : See Nutrition Science's Most Preposterous Result, from The Atlantic, May 2023.