Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 11 juil. 2026, 12:20 UTC · politique pm-quality-3
Prévision communautaire actuelleJ. D. Vance 83.5%En tête parmi 21 options
Prévisionnistes
59
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 jours
Obsolète10 oct. 23, 15:0517 juin 28, 6:59
Tendances
Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier
Résultat choisi
Ron Desantis52%
Comparer les plateformes· J. D. Vance
Classé par qualité du marché, puis liquidité et volume sur 24 h| Plateforme | Qualité | Probabilité | vs référence | Vol 24h | Liq | Fraîcheur | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiMeilleur global88% de correspondance · vérifié | Moyenne | 78% | — | 1,5 k € | 143,6 k € | il y a 16 minutes | Ouvrir → |
| Manifold MarketsCette page | — | 84% | — | — | — | il y a 16 jours |
Également disponible sur Kalshi
Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1.0 pts1a
78%
-3.0pt70%
+2.0pt62%
+31 résultats de plus
67 • Qualité moyenneSpread modéréLiquidité élevée
Volume total344,8 k €
Volume 24h1,5 k €
KALSHIRègles
This market uses the new Unlinked Multiple Choice format.
- The probabilites of each answer are independent of the other answers.
- Individual answers can resolve early, while the market as a whole remains open.
- Any person who appears in Wikipedia's "major candidates" section, at any time, for the 2028 Republican Party presidential primaries will resolve YES.
- The criteria here are:
- The candidates in this section have declared their candidacies and meet one or more of the following criteria: campaign has received substantial major media coverage; current or previous holder of significant elected office (president, vice president, governor, U.S. senator, U.S. representative); have been included in at least five national polls.
Les probabilités peuvent varier en raison de structures de marché, frais et bassins de participants différents.
Tendance du volume
$269 juil.3j de données11 juil.
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This market uses the new Unlinked Multiple Choice format.
- The probabilites of each answer are independent of the other answers.
- Individual answers can resolve early, while the market as a whole remains open.
- Any person who appears in Wikipedia's "major candidates" section, at any time, for the 2028 Republican Party presidential primaries will resolve YES.
- The criteria here are:
- The candidates in this section have declared their candidacies and meet one or more of the following criteria: campaign has received substantial major media coverage; current or previous holder of significant elected office (president, vice president, governor, U.S. senator, U.S. representative); have been included in at least five national polls.