Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
SpaceX 56%En tête parmi 3 options
SpaceX 56%Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 40 minutes
23 avr. 26, 10:54 UTC30 déc. 32, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship?
Manifold MarketsWill Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?
KalshiWill SpaceX or Blue Origin conduct or be contracted to conduct a private lunar landing before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill a state which is not the US contract SpaceX or Blue Origin to conduct a lunar landing before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWhich crewed vehicle will be next to land humans on the Moon?
Manifold MarketsAnother Blue Origin rocket explodes by Oct 31?
PolymarketRègles
As of April 2026, SpaceX and the named outcome are NASA's two contracted Human Landing System (HLS) providers for the Artemis program.
- SpaceX holds the Artemis III contract (Starship HLS, mid-2027 target, now reconfigured as an Earth-orbit test).
- the named outcome holds the Artemis V contract (Blue Moon Mark 2, ~2030).
- In October 2025, then-acting NASA Administrator Sean Duffy reopened the Artemis III landing contract amid Starship HLS delays, and the named outcome is reportedly developing a "Mark 1.5" crewed variant based on Blue Moon Mark 1 that could potentially fly sooner.
- This market resolves based on which company's lander first carries at least one human to a soft landing on the lunar surface, whether on a NASA Artemis mission, a commercial mission, or any other flight.
- Resolution criteria: