Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleKurzgesagt 100%En tête parmi 7 options
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète3 janv. 26, 01:03 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
▶️Which Youtube channels will release at least one video in October 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]
Manifold Markets▶️Which Youtube channels will release at least one video in November 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]
Manifold MarketsWill "AGI Safety & Alignment @ Google DeepMind is h..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Please Donate to CAIP (Post 1 of 6 on AI Gove..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketWill the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
FutuurRègles
Which YouTube channels will post their first video that primarily focuses on AI Safety in 2026.
- The video must be primarily about AI Safety, Control, Alignment, Governance and associated existential/societal scale risks.
- I would include Gradual Disempowerment-style risks, AI-enabled coups, extreme power concentration and value lock in etc as long as they are clearly recognisable as such.
- It must be a full length video, not a short/promo.
- If it wouldn't feel out of place in major AIS channels/podcasts/forums/venue/training program syllabus then it counts (e.g. Rational Animations, Rob Miles, 80k, LW/EA/AlignmentForum, BlueDot, MATS etc..).
- Links, references and calls to action to relevant AI Safety orgs aren't strictly necessarily but would be a strong signal.
