Prévision communautaire actuelle
No sector shows “wide adoption” by 31 Dec 2032 51.3%En tête parmi 6 options
Prévisionnistes
15
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète7 janv. 26, 05:45 UTC7 janv. 27, 05:41 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will any practical applications of quantum computing be commercially available to retail consumers before end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Quantum computing break RSA encryption before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill quantum computing achieve practical advantage in cryptography before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich major technology company will make the most significant quantum computing breakthrough by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill my friend S successfully run a market on manifold?
Manifold MarketsWill Matt Levine create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market resolves based on which sector first demonstrates wide, real-world adoption of quantum computing for production (non-experimental) workloads.
- Resolution Criteria:
- • The market resolves YES for the first sector that meets the criteria above.
- • If no sector clearly meets the criteria by 31 December 2032, resolve to: “No sector shows ‘wide adoption’ by 31 Dec 2032.”
- • If multiple sectors advance, the earliest clear adoption wins.
- Academic-only usage or single-company pilots do not qualify as wide adoption.
