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  • Accueil
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  1. Marchés de Prédiction
  2. Space
  3. Which of these rockets will reach orbit first?
Manifold Markets

Which of these rockets will reach orbit first?

CustomSpaceScienceTech3a
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSans KYC
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Manifold Markets
Nova 15.7%
En tête parmi 5 options
Prévisionnistes

5

Type de question

multiple choice

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 9 jours

Obsolète
13 févr. 26, 8:111 janv. 30, 8:11

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Résultat choisi

Nova16%

Règles

https://x.com/SciGuySpace/status/2022101432066093330?s=20

Manifold Markets
  • The market resolves to whichever rocket achieves orbital velocity first.
  • Resolution is determined by the first successful orbital insertion, defined as reaching a stable orbit around Earth with apogee and perigee both above 100 km altitude.
  • Neutron's first launch is targeted for 2026 (no earlier than Q1), Terran R is scheduled for the second half of 2026, Rocket 4 is planned for summer 2026, and Nova is under development at Cape Canaveral.
  • Resolution will be based on official announcements from the respective companies and confirmed by credible space industry sources (SpaceNews, NASASpaceflight, Space.com, or official company statements).
  • Rocket Lab's Neutron aims to reach orbit on its first flight, a challenging objective for new vehicle architectures.

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Actifs dans ces sujets

BitcoinBTC$65,893.78+2.13%SolanaSOL$71.19+3.28%EthereumETH$1,720.05+2.29%DogecoinDOGE$0.0889+1.00%BNBBNB$617.66+1.30%XRPXRP$1.19+2.88%

Actualités Associées

Ethereum can quantum-proof accounts for just 7 cents, says Ethereum's Kohaku leadCointelegraphEthereum researcher says $0.07 can add post-quantum account protectionCrypto NewsGoogle Unveils Gemini 3.5 and AI Upgrades at I/O 2026Blockchain.NewsNvidia may power Apple’s biggest Siri upgrade after years of delayCrypto NewsBig tech is 'terrified' of AI agents wiping out ad revenue, says Billions Network CEOCoindeskModern robots impress, but are years away from replacing humansCointelegraph

Règles

https://x.com/SciGuySpace/status/2022101432066093330?s=20

Manifold Markets
  • The market resolves to whichever rocket achieves orbital velocity first.
  • Resolution is determined by the first successful orbital insertion, defined as reaching a stable orbit around Earth with apogee and perigee both above 100 km altitude.
  • Neutron's first launch is targeted for 2026 (no earlier than Q1), Terran R is scheduled for the second half of 2026, Rocket 4 is planned for summer 2026, and Nova is under development at Cape Canaveral.
  • Resolution will be based on official announcements from the respective companies and confirmed by credible space industry sources (SpaceNews, NASASpaceflight, Space.com, or official company statements).
  • Rocket Lab's Neutron aims to reach orbit on its first flight, a challenging objective for new vehicle architectures.