Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleA model is publicly released which scores >45% on Humanity’s Last Exam (no tools) 100%En tête parmi 8 options
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète16 oct. 25, 15:09 UTC1 janv. 35, 15:46 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
By which years will AGI be released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?
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PolymarketRègles
A new highly-detailed operationalization of AGI has been proposed by Hendrycks et al. based on the standard that "AGI is an AI that can match or exceed the cognitive versatility and proficiency of a well-educated adult" (www.agidefinition.ai/).
- Their definition is inspired by Cattell-Horn-Carroll theory and calculate a model’s “AGI Score” as a composite of ten equally-weighted cognitive categories.
- GPT-4 is judged to score 27% according to the definition, and GPT-5 is scored at 58%.
- This market resolves YES for each event which occurs BEFORE the first date when an AI system, with an AGI Score eventually judged to be above 95%, is deployed and accessible to customers external to the AI developer for commercial or consumer purposes.
- The AGI Score would either need to be judged by the authors, or by a third party in a manner credibly commensurate with the original evaluations of GPT-4 and GPT-5.
- The score would need to be announced within 6 months of model release.
