🗓️2026 Timeline: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) this year in chronological order? (37 DONE)
IAOne-Off3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleBitcoin reaches 180K usd or more 98.2%En tête parmi 100 options
Prévisionnistes
41
Type de question
multiple choice
MĂ©thodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis Ă jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète4 janv. 26, 04:14 UTC5 janv. 27, 03:40 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsWhich of the following 10 events will happen LAST (or not at all) in chronological order?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRègles
README: Each answer will resolve to a percent as they happen, starting with 1% for the first event and working upwards:
- 1st event: 1% (happens soonest)
- 2nd event: 2% (happens next)
- 100th event: 100% (happens latest)
- Any events that do not happen by EOY will be resolved 100% YES.
- Update 2025-11-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The answer "EOD Thanksgiving - Nov 28" should be Nov 27 (the correct date for Thanksgiving Day in 2025).
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- 224,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5 k €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 344,9 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour 🗓️2026 Timeline: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) this year in chronological order? (37 DONE) ?
- Manifold Markets cote Bitcoin reaches 180K usd or more Ă 98% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand 🗓️2026 Timeline: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) this year in chronological order? (37 DONE) sera-t-il résolu ?
- 🗓️2026 Timeline: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) this year in chronological order? (37 DONE) doit être résolu le 5 janvier 2027.
- Comment 🗓️2026 Timeline: Which of these events will happen LAST (or not at all) this year in chronological order? (37 DONE) est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : README: Each answer will resolve to a percent as they happen, starting with 1% for the first event and working upwards: