Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 19 oct. 2026, 14:10 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelle
2035 69.7%En tête parmi 6 options
Prévisionnistes
14
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète16 oct. 25, 14:41 UTC2 janv. 35, 03:04 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which events will happen before AGI is released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?
Manifold MarketsWill ASI be developed 5+ years after AGI?
Manifold MarketsWill a paper clip maximizing AGI be developed 5 years after AGI is acheived
Manifold Markets10 years before AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will still be less mainstream than global warming was in 2015
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRègles
A new highly-detailed operationalization of AGI has been proposed by Hendrycks et al. based on the standard that "AGI is an AI that can match or exceed the cognitive versatility and proficiency of a well-educated adult" (www.agidefinition.ai/).
- Their definition is inspired by Cattell-Horn-Carroll theory and calculate a model’s “AGI Score” as a composite of ten equally-weighted cognitive categories.
- GPT-4 is judged to score 27% according to the definition, and GPT-5 is scored at 58%.
- This market resolves YES for all years that lie AFTER the first date when an AI system, with an AGI Score eventually judged to be above 95%, is deployed and accessible to customers external to the AI developer for commercial or consumer purposes.
- The score would either need to be judged by the authors, or by a third party in a manner credibly commensurate with the original evaluations of GPT-4 and GPT-5.
- The score would need to be announced within 6 months of model release.