Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 83.8%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète24 mars 23, 15:02 UTC1 janv. 00, 05:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
By at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 2015
Manifold MarketsWill I win my bet with Robin Hanson about AGI coming before ems?
Manifold MarketsWill global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2027, according to Berkeley Earth?
Manifold MarketsWill global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2026, according to Berkeley Earth?
Manifold MarketsWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat happens first: AI beats Minecraft (RSG) in under 10 minutes or All Millennium Prize Problems Solved?
Manifold MarketsRègles
One of the questions from https://jacyanthis.com/big-questions.
- Resolves according to my judgement of whether the criteria have been met, taking into account clarifications from @JacyAnthis, who made those predictions.
- (The goal is that they'd feel comfortable betting to their credance in this market, so I want the resolution criteria to match their intention.)
