Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOther 65%En tête parmi 7 options
Prévisionnistes
14
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+4.8 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète3 août 23, 14:36 UTC1 janv. 99, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Assuming a misaligned AI outbreak inadvertently kill >1 million people by 2035, who will be at fault?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI related disaster kill a million people or cause $1T of damage before 2070?
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FutuurWill a pneumonic plague case be reported in the U.S. this year?
KalshiRègles
Tuberculosis is a curable and preventable infectious disease.
- And yet, over 10 million people fall ill with it every year, and over 1.5 million people die.
- Resolves to the year in which the WHO reports less than 1 million people dying from TB or the year there are less then 1 million humans alive.
- I will add a new year as answers as time goes by.
- So if you predict this will happen later than 2029 you can bet on 'Other.'
- Relvant links:
