Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Later than 2027 67.7%En tête parmi 5 options
Later than 2027 67.7%Prévisionnistes
40
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète5 janv. 24, 01:23 UTC1 janv. 28, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
GPT 7 (OpenAI) release date
Manifold MarketsWhich Model numbers will OpenAI release as a flagship before adding a letter (e.g. ‘o’ in 4o, o1)
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI release a product named ChatGPT6?
Manifold MarketsWhen will OpenAI release a personal AI agent?
KalshiWhen will OpenAI release Astra 6.1?
Manifold MarketsWhen will OpenAI release Astra 6.1?
KalshiRègles
OpenAI used to do research on robotics, but stopped around 2020, as they found it was easier to get fast scaling with language models.
- This market resolves when OpenAI publicly releases a model which is in some way specialized for robotics.
- If no such model has been released by the end of 2027, it will resolve "the named outcome".
- To count, a model must be released to at least a thousand people outside of OpenAI (the general public, enterprise customers, etc).
- Internal development does not count.
- Alpha tests do not count.
