When Iran’s new Supreme Leader (Mojtaba Khamenei) dies or steps down, who will be the next next Supreme Leader?
Moyen-OrientGéopolitiquePolitique4mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOther 40.7%En tête parmi 8 options
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multiple choice
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Obsolète9 mars 26, 16:17 UTC9 mars 27, 16:14 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran’s supreme leader on 1 January 2027?
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Manifold MarketsIn how many days will Mojtaba Khamenei die?
Manifold MarketsRègles
85 year old Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in a strike by US/Israel in early 2026.
- His son has succeeded him.
- If he should die or step down, who will end up replacing him? Have added five options, including a “no one = regime change” option that covers a scenario of regime collapse after his death / resignation.
- Resolving yes for an option will happen when the Assembly of Experts announces a new leader, and/or this person acknowledges and accepts the title, and/or there is a clear formal ceremony or swearing in event, and/or someone emerges and is clearly referred to as the Supreme Leader by other senior clerics and significant political figures.
- If the regime collapses and no supreme leader replaces Khamenei 2, then will resolve to that option.
- If there is a power-sharing or ongoing interim rule situation, this option will resolve “yes” after 1 year of there being no new Supreme Leader.
