When Iran’s new Supreme Leader (Mojtaba Khamenei) dies or steps down, who will be the next next Supreme Leader?
Middle EastGéopolitiquePolitique6moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOther 40.7%En tête parmi 8 options
Prévisionnistes
12
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète9 mars 26, 16:17 UTC9 mars 27, 16:14 UTC
Tendances
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Iran’s supreme leader on 1 January 2027?
Manifold MarketsMojtaba Khamenei public appearance by which date?
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PolymarketWill Mojtaba Khamenei be alive on Jan 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Mojtaba Khamenei be killed by US/Israeli forces in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
85 year old Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in a strike by US/Israel in early 2026.
- His son has succeeded him.
- If he should die or step down, who will end up replacing him? Have added five options, including a “no one = regime change” option that covers a scenario of regime collapse after his death / resignation.
- Resolving yes for an option will happen when the Assembly of Experts announces a new leader, and/or this person acknowledges and accepts the title, and/or there is a clear formal ceremony or swearing in event, and/or someone emerges and is clearly referred to as the Supreme Leader by other senior clerics and significant political figures.
- If the regime collapses and no supreme leader replaces Khamenei 2, then will resolve to that option.
- If there is a power-sharing or ongoing interim rule situation, this option will resolve “yes” after 1 year of there being no new Supreme Leader.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour When Iran’s new Supreme Leader (Mojtaba Khamenei) dies or steps down, who will be the next next Supreme Leader? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Other à 41% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand When Iran’s new Supreme Leader (Mojtaba Khamenei) dies or steps down, who will be the next next Supreme Leader? sera-t-il résolu ?
- When Iran’s new Supreme Leader (Mojtaba Khamenei) dies or steps down, who will be the next next Supreme Leader? doit être résolu le 9 mars 2027.
- Comment When Iran’s new Supreme Leader (Mojtaba Khamenei) dies or steps down, who will be the next next Supreme Leader? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : 85 year old Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in a strike by US/Israel in early 2026.