Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
2025 100%En tête parmi 6 options
2025 100%Prévisionnistes
29
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète18 janv. 24, 01:09 UTC2 janv. 30, 00:35 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
What years will AlphaGeometry win IMO bronze (or higher)?
Manifold MarketsWill AI get IMO Gold by 2025/Wipe out Humanity by 2030?
Manifold MarketsAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
PolymarketWill the first AI to get IMO gold cite AlphaZero?
Manifold MarketsThe legal free-for-all that characterized the first few years of the AI boom will be definitively over in 2026
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRègles
A year resolves yes, if any AI program can get enough points to win at least bronze on the International Mathematics Olympiad of that year.
- The years are resolved completely independent of each other.
- If a neutral party (e.g. from the AIMO prize) judges AI performance in this respect, I will defer to them.
- Otherwise, I will judge myself.
- If I judge, my main requirements are that the AI was written and trained (if applicable) before the IMO, though it need not be released before the IMO.
- The AI should produce a proof that can be checked within a reasonable time by either a human or a proof assistant (e.g. Lean).
