Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle21~23 37.8%En tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
2
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+12.8 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète3 nov. 26, 02:20 UTC2 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will AI score above 65 on Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index?
KalshiWill Qwen be the top small open model (4B-40B) on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any AI model outscore Claude Fable 5.2 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index on November 30, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill an Open Weights Model be #1 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in 2026
Manifold MarketsWhere will Gemini 4 Pro score on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index vs the leading model prior to its inclusion?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to the answer bracket corresponding to the first official score published for Qwen 4 27B (base or standard instruction/chat variant, or the primary listed 27B variant) on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index v5.0.
- Primary Source: The official model leaderboard and evaluation page on Artificial Analysis (or its individual model profile on artificialanalysis.ai).
- Score Representation: Resolution will use the integer score displayed on the Artificial Analysis index for v5.0 (or rounded to the nearest integer if displayed as a decimal, rounding .5 up).
- Multiple Configurations: If multiple configurations or reasoning effort settings (e.g., standard vs. high reasoning effort) are listed simultaneously upon release, the score for the standard/primary default evaluation listed on the main leaderboard will be used.
- Answer Brackets: