Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 23 oct. 2026, 17:10 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Gemini 4 Pro 5-8 points worse 90.9%En tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète30 sept. 26, 02:21 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsNext Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve based on the score of Google's Gemini 4 Pro on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index compared to the leading model's score immediately prior to Gemini 4 Pro's inclusion.
- The market will resolve using the official scores published on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index (or the main LLM Leaderboard).
- $S_{Gemini}$: The highest score achieved by any configuration/effort level of Gemini 4 Pro (e.g., standard, max effort, etc.) when its official score is first fully indexed and listed on the leaderboard.
- $S_{Lead}$: The highest score on the index among all other models immediately prior to Gemini 4 Pro's inclusion.
- Difference ($D$): Calculated as $D = S_{Lead} - S_{Gemini}$ (representing how many points worse Gemini 4 Pro scored compared to the previous leader).