Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleHas a microphone 99%En tête parmi 23 options
Prévisionnistes
40
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète22 mai 25, 15:54 UTC31 déc. 26, 16:49 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the OpenAI/Jony Ive device have a screen?
KalshiWhat kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce?
KalshiWhen will OpenAI's first consumer hardware device be released? (Jony Ive Sam Altman IO) 🤖📱👀
Manifold MarketsWhat is true of OpenAI's "spud" model?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRègles
OpenAI acquired Jony Ive's io to build some kind of AI device.
- What will be true of the first device they release? This refers to whatever the first hardware product OpenAI + io release.
- If they release multiple devices simultaneously, each answer resolves YES if the answer is true of any of the devices.
- Update 2025-06-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the 'Designed to be worn on head' answer:
- Earbuds will be considered as 'worn on head'.
- Update 2026-02-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market close date will be extended until the device is released or confirmed as cancelled.
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHIOpen Source market share on Sep 14th
- Above 67.5%99%
- Above 70%+22.0pt99%
- Above 72.5%96%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 63,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 63,6 k €
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-8.0pt79%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-2.8pt68.6%
- ChatGPT-0.4pt15.7%
- Gemini+0.2pt6.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,5 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 15,85%
- December 31,-3.5pt84%
- November 30,-2.0pt76%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- 1510+45.5pt100%
- 1520-9.9pt81%
- 1530-0.1pt4%
+2 résultats de plus
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude89.9%
- Gemini2.8%
- ChatGPT1.8%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 27,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 27,4 k €
- Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour What will be true of the OpenAI / Jony Ive device? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Has a microphone à 99% au 15 septembre 2026.
- Quand What will be true of the OpenAI / Jony Ive device? sera-t-il résolu ?
- What will be true of the OpenAI / Jony Ive device? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment What will be true of the OpenAI / Jony Ive device? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : OpenAI acquired Jony Ive's io to build some kind of AI device.