Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleIt will be released by January 2027 100%En tête parmi 9 options
Prévisionnistes
42
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+24.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète25 mars 26, 18:11 UTC31 déc. 26, 19:10 UTC
Tendances
100%
100%
100%
100%
0%
0%
0%
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
What will be true of the OpenAI / Jony Ive device?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketWhich companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
KalshiWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
PolymarketRègles
Update 2026-03-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will use highly credible reporting (e.g., The Information) and signals like OpenAI employees posting potato emojis to identify which model is "Spud".
- The market is primarily intended to let people bet on a leaked codename, and may not necessarily close/resolve.
- Update 2026-03-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Many or all of the sub-questions in this market may never resolve if sufficient evidence does not emerge to confirm which model is "Spud" or its properties.
Marchés ouverts
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+9.0pt80.2%
- Yes-9.0pt19.8%
- Volume total
- 15,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,1 M €
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-5.0pt53%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-11.0pt53%
- Before Jul 1, 2027+15.0pt39%
+7 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-6.0pt81%
+9 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 15,-0.5pt85%
- December 31,-3.0pt84%
- November 30,-2.0pt76%
+7 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWhich Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Jacky Rosen+0.5pt38%
- Kirsten Gillibrand+9.0pt37%
- Ruben Gallego-14.5pt35%
+12 résultats de plus
KALSHIHow many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Above 50-7.0pt54%
- Above 55-22.0pt42%
- Above 58-8.0pt38%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Will the cap on gambling loss reduction be repealed?
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
- Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?
- Which Senators will vote for Clarity Act cloture?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by which date?
- Conference to Win the National Championship
Cryptos liées
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour What is true of OpenAI's "spud" model? ?
- Manifold Markets cote It will be released by January 2027 à 100% au 15 septembre 2026.
- Quand What is true of OpenAI's "spud" model? sera-t-il résolu ?
- What is true of OpenAI's "spud" model? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment What is true of OpenAI's "spud" model? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Update 2026-03-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will use highly credible reporting (e.g., The Information) and signals like OpenAI employees posting potato emojis to identify which model is "Spud".