Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleContains egregious, easily verified falsehoods 99%En tête parmi 32 options
Prévisionnistes
90
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète1 oct. 25, 18:07 UTC1 janv. 30, 18:30 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRègles
After years of criticizing Wikipedia for what he perceives as left-wing bias, Elon Musk announced the development of "Grokipedia", which he believes will be a "massive improvement" over the existing site.
- How do you think this will turn out? Add your own predictions!
- Note: "release" means when the full-version is out, not beta or early-access.
- The V0.1 which released on October 27 does not count.
- A future release labelled "V1.0" would count.
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour What will be true about Grokipedia upon *full* release? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Contains egregious, easily verified falsehoods à 99% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand What will be true about Grokipedia upon *full* release? sera-t-il résolu ?
- What will be true about Grokipedia upon *full* release? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2030.
- Comment What will be true about Grokipedia upon *full* release? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : After years of criticizing Wikipedia for what he perceives as left-wing bias, Elon Musk announced the development of "Grokipedia", which he believes will be a "massive improvement" over the existing site.