Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 25 juil. 2026, 04:00 UTC · politique pm-quality-2
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Republican president, <2% 23.2%-4.5%En tête parmi 8 options
Prévisionnistes
32
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour hier
Obsolète9 juil. 24, 16:051 janv. 29, 22:59
Tendances
Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier
Résultat choisi
Republican president, <2%23%
Tendance du volume
$3.9k24 juil.2j de données25 juil.
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This market will resolve to the answer with the combination of the party of the president elected in the 2024 presidential elections and the average real GDP growth rate for the years 2025, 2026, 2027, and 2028.
- If a third-party candidate wins the 2024 presidential election, this market will be canceled.
- Average GDP growth will be calculated as the geometric mean of annual inflation-adjusted GDP growth for each of the four years, as reported by Our World in Data, or another broadly reliable source if the data cannot be obtained via Our World in Data.
- I expect the data to be available at https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/real-gdp-growth?tab=chart&time=2025..2028&country=~USA, but if Our World in Data changes the format of their URLs the data may be found at a different URL.
- My original intent was to resolve the answers of the losing party to NO after the election; but I have been informed that it is not possible in a dependent multiple choice market like this one to resolve only some of the answers.
- Know that the Democrat president answers will be NO when this market resolves.