Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleBougainville 29.1%En tête parmi 15 options
Prévisionnistes
32
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 18 heures
Obsolète2 avr. 24, 17:37 UTC1 janv. 30, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
No new countries join the European Union (EU) in 2020s (2020-2029)
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will join ASEAN before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will join the CPTPP trade agreement before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will join the Mecca Agreement by December 31?
PolymarketWhich countries will join NATO as members in 2026?
FutuurWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketRègles
If a country is accepted but hasn’t completed joining by 2030 it still counts
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.1pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.4pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 643,2 k €
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-8.0pt72%
- September 18-7.5pt68%
- September 11-10.5pt60%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.5pt49.6%
- October 31-1.0pt29.6%
- September 30-3.5pt12.2%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+5.0pt81%
- Yes-5.0pt19%
- Volume total
- 9,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 261 k €
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.2pt1%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour What countries will join the UN before 2030 ?
- Manifold Markets cote Bougainville à 29% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand What countries will join the UN before 2030 sera-t-il résolu ?
- What countries will join the UN before 2030 doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2030.
- Comment What countries will join the UN before 2030 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : If a country is accepted but hasn’t completed joining by 2030 it still counts