Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 89%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète2 janv. 26, 07:50 UTC16 janv. 27, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Life360 monthly active users in Q3
KalshiWill Claude surpass ChatGPT in monthly active users by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Manifold reach 100k monthly active users before 2027?
Manifold MarketsSpotify monthly active users in Q3
KalshiDuolingo daily active users in Q3
KalshiWill Bluesky social have more monthly active users than Twitter by March 1st, 2028?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This is a prediction from https://www.understandingai.org/p/17-predictions-for-ai-in-2026
- It will resolve according to the judgement of the authors.
- If they don't publish a retrospective by the end of February, it will resolve according to my judgement.
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Vibes will have more active users than Sora at the end of 2026 ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 89% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Vibes will have more active users than Sora at the end of 2026 sera-t-il résolu ?
- Vibes will have more active users than Sora at the end of 2026 doit être résolu le 16 janvier 2027.
- Comment Vibes will have more active users than Sora at the end of 2026 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This is a prediction from https://www.understandingai.org/p/17-predictions-for-ai-in-2026