Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 86.3%
Prévisionnistes
18
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète20 janv. 26, 19:54 UTC19 janv. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Trump be impeached before Jan 20th 2029
Manifold MarketsWill Marco Rubio serve as Secretary of State until Jan 20th 2029?
Manifold MarketsWho invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?
Manifold MarketsWill the US take control of any part of Greenland?
KalshiHow much will the US acquire Greenland for?
KalshiWill any portion of Greenland become a US state, territory, or other federal jurisdiction by December 31, 2028?
ForecastExRègles
Resolves YES if the US uses force or the threat of force to take control of the island by the end of Trump's second term.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- Edge cases will be decided by me in accordance with the outcome most closely matching the spirit of the question.
Marchés ouverts
Geopolitics
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour US invades Greenland by force by Jan 20th, 2029? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 86% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand US invades Greenland by force by Jan 20th, 2029? sera-t-il résolu ?
- US invades Greenland by force by Jan 20th, 2029? doit être résolu le 19 janvier 2029.
- Comment US invades Greenland by force by Jan 20th, 2029? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves YES if the US uses force or the threat of force to take control of the island by the end of Trump's second term.