Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 77.4%
Prévisionnistes
4
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 minutes
22 sept. 26, 14:32 UTC28 oct. 26, 12:00 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
UK Autumn Budget 2026: will the 'mansion tax' threshold be set below £2 million?
Manifold MarketsUK Autumn Budget 2026: will the Energy Profits Levy be raised or extended?
Manifold MarketsUK Autumn Budget 2026: will a new first-time buyer ISA replace the Lifetime ISA?
Manifold MarketsWill PolicyEngine publish its UK Autumn Budget analysis by 07:00 GMT on 29 Oct?
Manifold MarketsCPI in September
KalshiAnother Fed rate hike in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
YES if the Budget announces a cash cut to any working-age benefit rate, or an April 2027 uprating below September 2026 CPI for any working-age benefit.
- Changes to eligibility or assessments alone resolve NO.
- Resolves YES if the measure is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech on 28 October 2026 or appears in the Budget documents HM Treasury publishes that day (the Budget document, the policy decisions table, the policy costings, or the Overview of Tax Legislation and Rates).
- A measure announced earlier counts if those documents confirm it.
- A consultation, review or call for evidence alone resolves NO.
- This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, 30 minutes before the speech is due to begin, because measures resolve as the Chancellor announces them.