Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 83%
Prévisionnistes
41
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète10 janv. 25, 06:30 UTC20 janv. 29, 00:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will I remain able to leave USA through January 20, 2029?
Manifold MarketsZohran Mamdani completes full term as NYC mayor?
Manifold MarketsWhat Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?
Manifold MarketsWill prominent rationalists judge that Trump's second term was the most positively impactful term in the last 68 years?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump go on SNL during his second term?
KalshiHow many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term?
KalshiRègles
This market resolves YES if Donald Trump serves his complete second presidential term from inauguration through January 20, 2029 without being removed from office through impeachment, resignation, death, or other means.
- Resolves NO if he leaves office early for any reason.
- Resolution will be based on official White House records and major news media confirmation.
Marchés ouverts
US Politics
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt65.7%
- No change-1.0pt32.4%
- 25 bps decrease1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 11,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,3 M €
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party-0.5pt91%
- Republican Party+0.6pt9%
- Volume total
- 32,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 982,4 k €
KALSHIMaine Senate winner?
- Troy Jackson-6.0pt67%
- Susan Collins+5.0pt33%
- Volume total
- 5,8 M €
- Volume 24h
- 758,8 k €
KALSHIWhat will Trump say during his evening remarks with Xi Jinping?
- Ballroom99%
- Melania99%
- AI / Artificial Intelligence1%
+28 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 627,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 598,8 k €
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. Senate?
- Democratic Party-4.0pt60.4%
- Republican Party+4.0pt39.6%
- Volume total
- 9,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 584,8 k €
KALSHIAlaska Senate winner?
- Democratic party-4.0pt71.7%
- Republican party+2.0pt28.3%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 445,5 k €
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Trump completes full second term through January 20, 2029 ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 83% au 24 septembre 2026.
- Quand Trump completes full second term through January 20, 2029 sera-t-il résolu ?
- Trump completes full second term through January 20, 2029 doit être résolu le 20 janvier 2029.
- Comment Trump completes full second term through January 20, 2029 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market resolves YES if Donald Trump serves his complete second presidential term from inauguration through January 20, 2029 without being removed from office through impeachment, resignation, death, or other means.