Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 85%
Prévisionnistes
1,038
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 minutes
5 déc. 24, 21:25 UTC22 janv. 29, 05:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Trump finish his second term?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump is elected in 2024, he finish his second term?
Manifold MarketsWhat Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump go on SNL during his second term?
KalshiHow many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term?
KalshiWill Trump be impeached in his second term?
FutuurRègles
Resolves Yes if Trump finishes his second term.
- Resolves No if Trump doesn't serve a full second term for any reason.
- @/PuckMinder/will-trump-sign-any-cannabisrelated
Marchés ouverts
US Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 695,7 k €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.4pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party15.8%
- Volume total
- 24,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 294,7 k €
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
- Ron DeSantis3.9%
+35 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 54,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 291,3 k €
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Trump terminera-t-il son second mandat ? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 85% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Trump terminera-t-il son second mandat ? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Trump terminera-t-il son second mandat ? doit être résolu le 22 janvier 2029.
- Comment Trump terminera-t-il son second mandat ? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves Yes if Trump finishes his second term.