Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 73.2%
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète8 avr. 25, 08:24 UTC20 janv. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Trump completes full second term through January 20, 2029
Manifold MarketsWhen will Xi leave the USA?
PolymarketWill Parsol Shield sunscreen be sold in the USA through Amazon to consumers by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsFed Decision in October?
PolymarketWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiWhich party will win the U.S. Senate?
KalshiRègles
I am a H1b, pending my EB2-NIW green card priority date, tech worker, Czech citizen, of no particular notoriety.
- Resolves NO if anytime before Jan 20, 2029 it becomes illegal or unsafe for someone like me living in San Francisco to physically leave USA within a couple hours if they were to decide to do so.
- Resolves YES if through January 20 2029 someone described above would remain able to leave USA expediently.
- Example conditions:
- Exit visa requirement enacted and I / someone similar to me would not automatically pass
- Planes grounded around where I am
Marchés ouverts
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt65.7%
- No change-1.0pt32.4%
- 25 bps decrease1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 11,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,3 M €
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party-0.5pt91%
- Republican Party+0.6pt9%
- Volume total
- 32,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 982,4 k €
KALSHIMaine Senate winner?
- Troy Jackson-6.0pt67%
- Susan Collins+5.0pt33%
- Volume total
- 5,8 M €
- Volume 24h
- 758,8 k €
KALSHIWhat will Trump say during his evening remarks with Xi Jinping?
- Ballroom99%
- Melania99%
- AI / Artificial Intelligence1%
+28 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 627,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 598,8 k €
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. Senate?
- Democratic Party-4.0pt60.4%
- Republican Party+4.0pt39.6%
- Volume total
- 9,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 584,8 k €
KALSHIAlaska Senate winner?
- Democratic party-4.0pt71.7%
- Republican party+2.0pt28.3%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 445,5 k €
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Maine Senate Election Winner
- Nebraska Senate winner?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- New Hampshire Senate winner?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will I remain able to leave USA through January 20, 2029? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 73.2% au 25 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will I remain able to leave USA through January 20, 2029? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will I remain able to leave USA through January 20, 2029? doit être résolu le 20 janvier 2029.
- Comment Will I remain able to leave USA through January 20, 2029? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : I am a H1b, pending my EB2-NIW green card priority date, tech worker, Czech citizen, of no particular notoriety.