Time between AI winning IMO gold medal and AI winning IMO grand challenge (see description)
IACommoditiesManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle>= 25 years 41.6%En tête parmi 9 options
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète26 juin 23, 18:52 UTC1 janv. 00, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
How many years between AI winning IMO and Putnam?
Manifold MarketsWhat year will the IMO grand challenge be completed?
Manifold MarketsWill the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
PolymarketWNBA MVP Winner
GeminiHow many hours will I study this week? (50 mana prize, see description)
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market concerns about two events * A: When will an AI get gold on the international mathematics olympiad, following the resolution criteria of: https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat
- * B: When will AI complete the IMO grand challenge, by getting gold on the international mathematics olympiad producing machine-checkable proofs, following the resolution criteria of: https://manifold.markets/FlorisvanDoorn/will-the-imo-grand-challenge-be-com
- This market asks what the duration of time is after event A and before event B. This market resolves to the shortest correct answer.
- For example if it takes 2 months, it will resolve to "< 4 months", because that answer mentions a shorter time frame than the answer "< 1 year".
- If events A and B happen at the same time, or if B happens before A (which should not happen), then this resolves "< 1 week".
- It will resolve to ">= 25 years" if event B has not happened 25 years after event A happened.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Time between AI winning IMO gold medal and AI winning IMO grand challenge (see description) ?
- Manifold Markets cote >= 25 years à 42% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Time between AI winning IMO gold medal and AI winning IMO grand challenge (see description) sera-t-il résolu ?
- Time between AI winning IMO gold medal and AI winning IMO grand challenge (see description) doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2100.
- Comment Time between AI winning IMO gold medal and AI winning IMO grand challenge (see description) est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market concerns about two events * A: When will an AI get gold on the international mathematics olympiad, following the resolution criteria of: https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-an-ai-get-gold-on-any-internat