Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 10:30 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuellenot by 2032 38.7%En tête parmi 11 options
Prévisionnistes
28
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète25 juin 23, 19:00 UTC1 janv. 33, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsTime between AI winning IMO gold medal and AI winning IMO grand challenge (see description)
Manifold MarketsWill a deepmind model be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiOpenAI announces bankruptcy by which date?
PolymarketRègles
This resolves to the (first) year that the IMO grand challenge is completed according to the IMO Grand Challenge committee.
- This requires an AI to generate machine-checkable proof of all problems on an IMO, and there are more rules here: https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/
- I will use the year that the announcement was made by a member of the IMO Grand Challenge committee to decide which year this market resolves as (UTC).
- Since the code must be publicly available before the first day of the IMO I don't expect any close calls here.
- This resolves "the named outcome" if this market hasn't resolved by the end of 2032.
- It will also resolve "the named outcome" a month after the IMO in 2032 if there is nobody makes a credible claim that the IMO grand challenge might be solved.