Prévision communautaire actuelle
Other/None 26.8%En tête parmi 9 options
Prévisionnistes
19
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète27 sept. 25, 21:28 UTC1 janv. 31, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Prop bets: What will prediction markets do to society (add your own)
Manifold MarketsWho will be the first Manifold User to reach 10 million mana net worth (add your own)
Manifold MarketsWho will be the first public figure to confidently claim that artificial intelligences are people? (add your own)
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic’s “global workspace” paper (J-space) replicate by EOY2030? [prop bets; add your own]
Manifold MarketsWho is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRègles
Revised Resolution Criteria:
- This market will resolve after the end date of December 31, 2030.
- The resolution process will be as follows:
- Identify Failed Companies: First, a list will be compiled of all companies that have met any of the "go bust" criteria (defined below) between October 1, 2025, and December 31, 2030.
- Determine the 'Biggest': From that list, the "biggest" will be identified as the company that achieved the highest peak valuation after October 1, 2025.
- Resolution: The market will resolve to the name of that single "biggest" company listed.
