Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOther 41.4%En tête parmi 5 options
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète8 oct. 25, 21:33 UTC8 oct. 30, 21:32 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a Manifold user reach 1 Million traders by EOY 2030
Manifold MarketsProp bets: What will prediction markets do to society (add your own)
Manifold MarketsWho will be the first public figure to confidently claim that artificial intelligences are people? (add your own)
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic’s “global workspace” paper (J-space) replicate by EOY2030? [prop bets; add your own]
Manifold MarketsElon Musk Net Worth on October 31?
PolymarketElon Musk net worth on December 31, 2026
KalshiRègles
Does not count temporary glitches/hacks/exploits.
- Must hold the net worth for at least 24 hours, and I'm counting legitimate loans against/for that net worth.
- (I may change this if I find that my criteria already puts someone past 10 million.)
- Update 2026-06-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Manifold-owned accounts (accounts tied to manifold.markets development or management) do not qualify for resolution.
- Only independent users are eligible.