Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleCreate new forms of gambling addiction and financial harm 87.5%En tête parmi 7 options
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète17 févr. 26, 18:23 UTC31 déc. 30, 18:20 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Anthropic’s “global workspace” paper (J-space) replicate by EOY2030? [prop bets; add your own]
Manifold MarketsWho will be the first Manifold User to reach 10 million mana net worth (add your own)
Manifold MarketsWho will be the first public figure to confidently claim that artificial intelligences are people? (add your own)
Manifold MarketsWhat's true about pro-em reports heard by Robin Hanson? (add your own options)
Manifold MarketsLaw banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?
PolymarketWill a law restricting sports trades on prediction markets be enacted in 2026?
PredictItRègles
Most of this is AI generated,
- I just took the idea from this video and ran with it there will be no high effort resolutions:
- https://youtu.be/73TLRFImsz8?si=Ugm1PAtlZxaDlucI
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves based on a poll where traders vote on which societal impacts of prediction markets they believe are most likely to materialize.
- Traders can select multiple answers.
