Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 80.5%
Prévisionnistes
15
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète2 janv. 26, 07:49 UTC15 janv. 27, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?
PolymarketDid Something “Wild” Just Happen at Open AI?
Manifold MarketsWill Sam Altman leave open AI before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Sam Altman leave open AI before 2027?
Manifold MarketsBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketSecond-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketRègles
This is a prediction from https://www.understandingai.org/p/17-predictions-for-ai-in-2026
- It will resolve according to the judgement of the authors.
- If they don't publish a retrospective by the end of February, it will resolve according to my judgement.
Marchés ouverts
AI
KALSHIOpen Source market share on Sep 14th
- Above 67.5%99%
- Above 70%+22.0pt99%
- Above 72.5%96%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 63,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 63,6 k €
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-8.0pt79%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-2.8pt68.6%
- ChatGPT-0.4pt15.7%
- Gemini+0.2pt6.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,5 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 15,85%
- December 31,-3.5pt84%
- November 30,-2.0pt76%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- 1510+45.5pt100%
- 1520-9.9pt81%
- 1530-0.1pt4%
+2 résultats de plus
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude89.9%
- Gemini2.8%
- ChatGPT1.8%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 27,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 27,4 k €
- Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour The American open AI frontier will catch up to Chinese models in 2026 ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 81% au 14 septembre 2026.
- Quand The American open AI frontier will catch up to Chinese models in 2026 sera-t-il résolu ?
- The American open AI frontier will catch up to Chinese models in 2026 doit être résolu le 15 janvier 2027.
- Comment The American open AI frontier will catch up to Chinese models in 2026 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This is a prediction from https://www.understandingai.org/p/17-predictions-for-ai-in-2026