Prévision communautaire actuelle
No Starship launch in 2026, no Starship launch in 2028 65.6%En tête parmi 7 options
No Starship launch in 2026, no Starship launch in 2028 65.6%Prévisionnistes
24
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard9 sept. 24, 08:01 UTC30 mars 29, 15:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?
Manifold MarketsWill Starship reach Mars by 2030?
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Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX launch a Starship to Mars by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRègles
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1832550322293837833
- "Starship launch" = launch to Mars
- in 2026/2028 = in the relevant launch window, no problem if the actual launch is in 2027/2029
- Update 2025-09-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A launch must actually occur (visible movement off the pad).
- The mission's stated objective must be at least to reach Martian orbit; landing also qualifies.
- A planned Mars flyby is not sufficient.