Prévision communautaire actuelle
No Starship launch in 2026, no Starship launch in 2028 65.6%En tête parmi 7 options
No Starship launch in 2026, no Starship launch in 2028 65.6%Prévisionnistes
24
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète9 sept. 24, 08:01 UTC30 mars 29, 15:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?
Manifold MarketsWill the first uncrewed Starship to Mars launch within 2 years as Elon Musk says?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX launch a Starship to Mars by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Starship reach Mars by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRègles
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1832550322293837833
- "Starship launch" = launch to Mars
- in 2026/2028 = in the relevant launch window, no problem if the actual launch is in 2027/2029
- Update 2025-09-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A launch must actually occur (visible movement off the pad).
- The mission's stated objective must be at least to reach Martian orbit; landing also qualifies.
- A planned Mars flyby is not sufficient.