Prévision communautaire actuelle
No Starship launch in 2026, no Starship launch in 2028 65.6%En tête parmi 7 options
Prévisionnistes
24
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète9 sept. 24, 08:01 UTC30 mars 29, 15:59 UTC
Tendances
0.4%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?
Manifold MarketsWill the first uncrewed Starship to Mars launch within 2 years as Elon Musk says?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX launch a Starship to Mars by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketGemini 4.0 released by which date?
PolymarketRègles
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1832550322293837833
- "Starship launch" = launch to Mars
- in 2026/2028 = in the relevant launch window, no problem if the actual launch is in 2027/2029
- Update 2025-09-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A launch must actually occur (visible movement off the pad).
- The mission's stated objective must be at least to reach Martian orbit; landing also qualifies.
- A planned Mars flyby is not sufficient.
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Starship to Mars Multi-choice Matrix ?
- Manifold Markets cote No Starship launch in 2026, no Starship launch in 2028 à 66% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Starship to Mars Multi-choice Matrix sera-t-il résolu ?
- Starship to Mars Multi-choice Matrix doit être résolu le 30 mars 2029.
- Comment Starship to Mars Multi-choice Matrix est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1832550322293837833