Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle3 parties 41.3%En tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète22 sept. 25, 18:35 UTC22 mars 29, 19:31 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Any viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election)
Manifold MarketsWill the FDP receive more than 5% of the vote in the next German federal election (regularly in 2029)?
Manifold MarketsWill CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
PolymarketNext German federal election winner?
KalshiWhich parties will gain seats in the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsNext Canadian federal election winner?
KalshiRègles
Will resolve after the next German federal election (scheduled for no later than March 2029, unless early elections are called).
- Resolves to the option representing the minimum number of mainstream parties needed to form a majority coalition (>50% of Bundestag seats).
- Examples: - After the election in early 2025, the market would have resolved to "2 parties" because a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition was possible. - If there were an election held today that matched current polling (September 2025), the market would resolve to "the named outcome" because a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition would not be possible, but a CDU/CSU-SPD-Greens coalition would.
- Definition of "mainstream" Parties:
- Included as "mainstream": CDU/CSU, FDP, SPD, Greens
- Not included as "mainstream": AfD, BSW, Die Linke (Left Party) Other parties will be classified based on their policy positions relative to this spectrum
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsKALSHINH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Stefany Shaheen+81.8pt100%
- Maura Sullivan-81.6pt0%
- Carleigh Beriont-2.7pt0%
- Volume total
- 957,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 760,7 k €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.2%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16.2%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.1%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,7 M €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-3.0pt52.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.9pt45.5%
- Renan Santos1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+2.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-1.3pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.6pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-0.2pt37.1%
- Édouard Philippe32%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon12.4%
+38 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- NJ-07 House winner?
- IA-01 House winner?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Smallest viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election) ?
- Manifold Markets cote 3 parties à 41% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Smallest viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election) sera-t-il résolu ?
- Smallest viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election) doit être résolu le 22 mars 2029.
- Comment Smallest viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election) est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Will resolve after the next German federal election (scheduled for no later than March 2029, unless early elections are called).