Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 50%
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète7 sept. 26, 14:36 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will we observe a supernova in the Milky Way Galaxy before 2050?
Manifold MarketsBlack hole spin-flip a cause of X-shaped radio galaxy?
Manifold MarketsWill the Milky Way collide with the Andromeda galaxy?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
The current record is MoM-z14, a galaxy at redshift z=14.44.
- Its light traveled 13.5 billion years to reach us, and is now 33.8 billion light years away (space expands)
- It appears as it was 280 million years after the big bang
- Resolves YES if a galaxy with a spectroscopic redshift above 14.44 is reported before Jan 1, 2028.
- Resolution follows the List of the most distant astronomical objects - Wikipedia - confirmed objects section.
- If that entry shows z>14.44 and cites a published paper or preprint, this resolves YES.
Marchés ouverts
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt88%
- OpenAI-1.7pt10%
- Google2%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 85,3 k €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- Yes59.4%
- No40.6%
- Volume total
- 153,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 39,2 k €
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+3.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETSpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
- October 3197%
- Successful splash down?84%
- September 30-5.3pt83%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 409,9 k €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+1.3pt59.8%
- SpaceX-4.5pt38.1%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-1.0pt84%
- Above 9-27.0pt46%
- Above 10-8.0pt23%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- Next Grok Model (4.7+) released on?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour New most-distant galaxy (z>14.4) by EOY 2027 ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 50% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand New most-distant galaxy (z>14.4) by EOY 2027 sera-t-il résolu ?
- New most-distant galaxy (z>14.4) by EOY 2027 doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2027.
- Comment New most-distant galaxy (z>14.4) by EOY 2027 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The current record is MoM-z14, a galaxy at redshift z=14.44.