Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 79.4%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète4 déc. 25, 03:24 UTC31 déc. 35, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will an AI system autonomously access restricted high-risk systems or data by end of 2045?
Manifold MarketsWill humanity wipe out AI x-risk before 2030?
Manifold MarketsIn 2030, will we think FLI's 6 month pause open letter helped or harmed our AI x-risk chances?
Manifold MarketsTencent market share this week
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRègles
From the MIT AI Risk Initiative: "Loss of life - Accidental or deliberate loss of life, including suicide, extinction or cessation, due to the use or misuse of a technology system."
- This market is about whether a deployed AI system will be blamed for a large loss of life.
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if, by 31 December 2035, there is a publicly available:
- official report from a government, regulator, court, accident/incident body, or major international organisation (WHO, UN, ICAO, etc.), or
- article from a major reputable news organisation (e.g. Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, WSJ, The Guardian) that credibly reports such a finding,
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.6pt68.9%
- ChatGPT+0.4pt12.6%
- Gemini+1.6pt10.7%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 10 M €
- Volume 24h
- 87,4 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-11.0pt69%
- December 15,-8.5pt65%
- November 30,-5.0pt50%
+7 résultats de plus
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 5.6%+18.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 4.5%99%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 228,5 k €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 24.3%+13.0pt99%
- Above 24.7%+30.0pt99%
- Above 23.6%+1.0pt99%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T+0.1pt25%
- $2.25–$2.5T-5.0pt19.8%
- $1.75–$2.0T-3.0pt16.7%
+7 résultats de plus
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.55%99%
- Above 2.05%99%
- Above 2.25%99%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 239,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 53,3 k €
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Anthropic lab leak by which date?
- Best AI this week
- When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour [MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will AI be blamed for ≥1,000 deaths by end of 2035? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 79% au 20 septembre 2026.
- Quand [MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will AI be blamed for ≥1,000 deaths by end of 2035? sera-t-il résolu ?
- [MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will AI be blamed for ≥1,000 deaths by end of 2035? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2035.
- Comment [MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will AI be blamed for ≥1,000 deaths by end of 2035? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : From the MIT AI Risk Initiative: "Loss of life - Accidental or deliberate loss of life, including suicide, extinction or cessation, due to the use or misuse of a technology system."