![[Metaculus] Will a non-test Anti-Satellite (ASAT) weapon be used against a satellite before 2030?](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Ffirebasestorage.googleapis.com%2Fv0%2Fb%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fo%2Fdream%252Fi4dcHdAaT5.png%3Falt%3Dmedia%26token%3Dba3bffa0-9fa8-4b07-aed7-532ff6b2315c&w=128&q=80)
[Metaculus] Will a non-test Anti-Satellite (ASAT) weapon be used against a satellite before 2030?
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Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 71.4%
Non 71.4%Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 37 minutes
12 oct. 23, 22:02 UTC31 janv. 30, 05:00 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Will a non-test ASAT weapon be used against a satellite before 2030?
- Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
- Resolution criteria
- This question will resolve as Yes if before January 1, 2030, credible sources report that an ASAT weapon was deliberately used against another satellite in a non-test capacity.
- The deployment of an ASAT weapon does not have to be successful for this question to resolve as Yes.
- Any attempted offensive use of an ASAT, as confirmed by a credible source, will resolve the question as Yes.
