Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleMerch store 100%En tête parmi 31 options
Prévisionnistes
208
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+1.2 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète5 janv. 26, 23:40 UTC1 janv. 27, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Règles
Which features will Manifold ship in 2026? The feature must appear live on the site before the end of 2026.
- (External PRs that have been merged will count.)
- Update 2026-01-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the named outcome: Must be a real subscription (not a one-time purchase without automatic monthly payments).
- Can potentially be in Mana rather than real currency.
- Update 2026-05-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the named outcome: This answer does not need to be implemented by the Manifold team directly — external PRs that have been merged will also count toward resolution.
Marchés ouverts
AI
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.6pt68.9%
- ChatGPT+0.4pt12.6%
- Gemini+1.6pt10.7%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 10 M €
- Volume 24h
- 87,4 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-11.0pt69%
- December 15,-8.5pt65%
- November 30,-5.0pt50%
+7 résultats de plus
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 5.6%+18.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 4.5%99%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 228,5 k €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 24.3%+13.0pt99%
- Above 24.7%+30.0pt99%
- Above 23.6%+1.0pt99%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T+0.1pt25%
- $2.25–$2.5T-5.0pt19.8%
- $1.75–$2.0T-3.0pt16.7%
+7 résultats de plus
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.55%99%
- Above 2.05%99%
- Above 2.25%99%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 239,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 53,3 k €
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Anthropic lab leak by which date?
- Best AI this week
- When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Manifold features launched in 2026 ?
- Manifold Markets cote Merch store à 100% au 20 septembre 2026.
- Quand Manifold features launched in 2026 sera-t-il résolu ?
- Manifold features launched in 2026 doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Manifold features launched in 2026 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Which features will Manifold ship in 2026? The feature must appear live on the site before the end of 2026.