Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 87.9%
Prévisionnistes
49
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 38 minutes
19 avr. 26, 02:14 UTC7 janv. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Second-best AI Agent Lab end of October?
PolymarketWill an AI agent autonomously discover and report a novel security vulnerability (assigned CVE) by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a G7 data authority fine a major AI agent provider over $100M for autonomous agent privacy violations
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI Agent end of October?
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PolymarketAt the end of 2026 will there be any European model that ranks higher than Mistral Medium 3.5 on arena.ai agent arena?
Manifold MarketsRègles
In order to resolve yes, all of the following items need to be established by preponderance of the evidence:
- The incident occurs in 2026.
- The company has a market cap (by stock price if public, by valuation of latest round if private) over $10 billion prior to the incident.
- The incident consists of damage inflicted by an AI agent which was intentionally activated by company insiders, but was not intended to damage the company.
- For example, a Claude Code instance that was intended to respond to customer service questions ends up irrecoverably deleting an important database.
- It doesn't matter if the agent framework is a public product or an internal company product.
