LLMs widely used in economics modeling by the end of 2026?
FedOne-OffIAÉconomieMacro et économie2mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 68.9%
Non 68.9%Prévisionnistes
16
Type de question
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Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
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Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète29 août 23, 00:23 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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It has been suggested that LLMs could be used to ingest large amounts of economic data (accounting books, economic facts about a community) to create an oracle capable of answering questions relevant to policy.
- For instance one could take 'a small village' (as Tyler Cowen put it) and train a LLM on a wide array of unstructured data to implicitly model the village's economy.
- An agency such as a central bank could then use the trained LLM to predict the effects of policy decisions, e.g. what would the effect on unemployment be if the interest rate rose by 0.25%?
- Will at least one central bank or government of an OECD country publicly disclose having trained such a model with the intention to use it, by Dec 31, 2026?
- Releasing a working paper or equivalent official communication with details of the training and intended application would count towards a YES resolution.
- Merely speculating on possible applications or declaring that such a project is in process would not.
